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Hi Amber,

I ran across something that a friend of mine posted about the numbers, and I want to get your take. He argues that, at least in terms of hospitalizations and deaths, there may be an argument for treating the rates differently now that an estimated 53% of the US population and 42% of Georgians are fully vaccinated.

Given a roughly 50% vaccination rate and what we know about the very high efficacy rates the vaccine has for minimizing major symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths, he argues that the metrics we are using to measure morbidity and mortality are no longer appropriate and that we should be weighting these numbers according to vaccination rates.

For 14 years, I helped the Pima County, AZ government map all the migrant deaths in southern Arizona and, over time, saw a similar pattern. Over the long run, the number of undocumented border crossers decreased, but death frequency remained roughly constant. This means that the lethality of the crossing increased with time. Is this a similar situation? If not, why not? I hope this is a useful question and my apologies in advance if you've already addressed it elsewhere. Thanks for all your work and I hope the new gig is treating you well.

Best Regards,


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