Thanks for showing the differences in maps. It make much more sense. Why when comparing fatality data on Male vs Female and African American/Black vs White vs Asian do many only go to age 69 when the preponderance of deaths are over 69?
Besides a record number of cases, we also had a record number of tests. And - while the % positive is quite high, it’s finally showing signs of stabilization and possibly even easing back a bit. Any thought on this weeks test quantity and % positive?
A possibility for why women are greater % of fatalities at older ages is that they are a greater % of the population in those ages. Women start to significantly outnumber men at age 55+, and the difference becomes almost 2x at age 85+
I was thinking that the underlying demographics would explain at least part of the change. I was also wondering that if conditioned upon obtaining age 80, if the general health of an elderly man is better. That is, if a man is able to survive to age 80, he is on average healthier than the average woman who survives to age 80.
I do think it would be helpful to add a chart for quantity of tests administered over a period of time. Saying cases have increased without correlation to quantity tests being performed in that same time period skews the reality of increases. People couldn’t get tests in April or May unless there were symptoms and qualified to have one. Also we have learned Rapid Tests are not accurate all of the time. So to just say cases are increasing isn’t the whole story. Can we also get a graph that shows a test performed in quantity for a date then break it down by rapid test versus nasal swab.
Hi Alexis, I do typically graph tests administered over time. Feel free to look at previous posts. As far as a break down of the types of tests performed, I would suggest filing an open records request with the Department of Public Health. Because those data aren't available to the public. Moreover, the PCR test is the only one used to confirm a case so the data on the other tests would be interesting but not terribly relevant since they have no bearing on identifying a positive case. I hope this helps!
Is it possible to separate the cases by whether it was newly vs previously contracted. Can we add in number of tests vs incidence of disease, these would be helpful to me
IMO, cumulative graphs are less useful than daily or weekly. eg. the 6 color graph (rural, not rural, etc) is very useful if it's showing weekly, but not remotely useful showing cumulative. In recent days, I think around 20-25% of new cases are non-GA residents (illegal immigrants??). A lot of people are lashing out at their fellow upper middle class neighbors b/c it's more socially acceptable than hating illegal immigrants.
I also find a lot of value in the AJC's dashboard "New cases per 100k in the last 14 days" map.
The percentage is interesting, but I hope Fulton and the other large counties won't be showing 100-200+% increases (so I suspect large percentage increases are more likely to represent surges in smaller counties that haven't had huge numbers of cases.)
But knowing how extensive it has grown to locally is of importance to determining precautions (or opening schools.)
tbh, even though US media keeps saying 'can't open schools if cases are increasing!', several European countries have figured out that schools are not transmission sites, kids are not vectors of any significance, and schools should be fully open. American kids are not biologically different from their EU counterparts. Schools should be open. Teachers unions are playing politics to prevent it--at the expense of children. Teachers are only at risk from other teachers, not from students.
Thanks for your comment Peter. An important thing to remember, however, is that countries in the European union have lower levels of transmission than we do because they did the work of interrupting transmission with extended shelter in place orders. On the other hand, we had to prioritize other things. So we can't expect to have the same results as they have had - not because our children are biologically different, but because our rates of disease are higher. Children aren't spreading disease in European countries because there is less disease to spread in the first place. I think it is also a bit unfair to blame teachers for wanting to stay alive. I don't think caring about one's health and safety is playing politics. We knew when we closed the schools in March when school would be reopening in the fall. We had opportunities to prepare for schools to reopen - cutting transmission rates, funding schools to enact the safety measures that would be required, etc. We did none of those things, unfortunately.
Hmm. I know studies from China, Australia, as well as Europe have shown that kids just aren't vectors of any significance. I don't understand why that would change here. And Sweden of course didn't take any drastic measures and they are pretty much over it. Don't you think that doing something similar, i.e. protecting the segments that per cdc statistics suffer the huge brunt of deaths would have been good, but otherwise just let the virus do its things as we've done for past corona viruses??? We all want to stay alive, but we're in this thing together, and just as the healthcare workers, grocery, and restaurant workers put their lives on the line every day, teachers need to do the same--and they're fortunate enough to be around children, who are not vectors of any significance.
Thanks for showing the differences in maps. It make much more sense. Why when comparing fatality data on Male vs Female and African American/Black vs White vs Asian do many only go to age 69 when the preponderance of deaths are over 69?
Besides a record number of cases, we also had a record number of tests. And - while the % positive is quite high, it’s finally showing signs of stabilization and possibly even easing back a bit. Any thought on this weeks test quantity and % positive?
A possibility for why women are greater % of fatalities at older ages is that they are a greater % of the population in those ages. Women start to significantly outnumber men at age 55+, and the difference becomes almost 2x at age 85+
In general this might explain the preponderance of white vs black at older date ranges.
I was thinking that the underlying demographics would explain at least part of the change. I was also wondering that if conditioned upon obtaining age 80, if the general health of an elderly man is better. That is, if a man is able to survive to age 80, he is on average healthier than the average woman who survives to age 80.
I do think it would be helpful to add a chart for quantity of tests administered over a period of time. Saying cases have increased without correlation to quantity tests being performed in that same time period skews the reality of increases. People couldn’t get tests in April or May unless there were symptoms and qualified to have one. Also we have learned Rapid Tests are not accurate all of the time. So to just say cases are increasing isn’t the whole story. Can we also get a graph that shows a test performed in quantity for a date then break it down by rapid test versus nasal swab.
Hi Alexis, I do typically graph tests administered over time. Feel free to look at previous posts. As far as a break down of the types of tests performed, I would suggest filing an open records request with the Department of Public Health. Because those data aren't available to the public. Moreover, the PCR test is the only one used to confirm a case so the data on the other tests would be interesting but not terribly relevant since they have no bearing on identifying a positive case. I hope this helps!
I really appreciate your work. This is really the only data I trust. Thank you!!
Please do Florida's data!!! We need someone like you!!! PLEASE!!!!
Is it possible to separate the cases by whether it was newly vs previously contracted. Can we add in number of tests vs incidence of disease, these would be helpful to me
IMO, cumulative graphs are less useful than daily or weekly. eg. the 6 color graph (rural, not rural, etc) is very useful if it's showing weekly, but not remotely useful showing cumulative. In recent days, I think around 20-25% of new cases are non-GA residents (illegal immigrants??). A lot of people are lashing out at their fellow upper middle class neighbors b/c it's more socially acceptable than hating illegal immigrants.
This is very informative and illuminating. Thank you.
I also find a lot of value in the AJC's dashboard "New cases per 100k in the last 14 days" map.
The percentage is interesting, but I hope Fulton and the other large counties won't be showing 100-200+% increases (so I suspect large percentage increases are more likely to represent surges in smaller counties that haven't had huge numbers of cases.)
But knowing how extensive it has grown to locally is of importance to determining precautions (or opening schools.)
tbh, even though US media keeps saying 'can't open schools if cases are increasing!', several European countries have figured out that schools are not transmission sites, kids are not vectors of any significance, and schools should be fully open. American kids are not biologically different from their EU counterparts. Schools should be open. Teachers unions are playing politics to prevent it--at the expense of children. Teachers are only at risk from other teachers, not from students.
Thanks for your comment Peter. An important thing to remember, however, is that countries in the European union have lower levels of transmission than we do because they did the work of interrupting transmission with extended shelter in place orders. On the other hand, we had to prioritize other things. So we can't expect to have the same results as they have had - not because our children are biologically different, but because our rates of disease are higher. Children aren't spreading disease in European countries because there is less disease to spread in the first place. I think it is also a bit unfair to blame teachers for wanting to stay alive. I don't think caring about one's health and safety is playing politics. We knew when we closed the schools in March when school would be reopening in the fall. We had opportunities to prepare for schools to reopen - cutting transmission rates, funding schools to enact the safety measures that would be required, etc. We did none of those things, unfortunately.
Hmm. I know studies from China, Australia, as well as Europe have shown that kids just aren't vectors of any significance. I don't understand why that would change here. And Sweden of course didn't take any drastic measures and they are pretty much over it. Don't you think that doing something similar, i.e. protecting the segments that per cdc statistics suffer the huge brunt of deaths would have been good, but otherwise just let the virus do its things as we've done for past corona viruses??? We all want to stay alive, but we're in this thing together, and just as the healthcare workers, grocery, and restaurant workers put their lives on the line every day, teachers need to do the same--and they're fortunate enough to be around children, who are not vectors of any significance.