I worry when you're late: Are you OK?? And so I'm both glad to see this in my inbox this morning and sorry that it is such a stressful process for you--and for all of us. Thank you again for the work that you do.
You're looking where to get the PCR test done? Using the GA DPH website, it looks like free testing is available at the Colquitt county health department in Moultrie. Otherwise check here: https://dph.georgia.gov/locations/
Hey, Dr. Schmidtke! Thank you for these updates, they have been very helpful, reliable, and transparent. The work, time, and effort you put into this is very appreciated and well laid out.
In my own observation of the data is that the average delay between cases spiking and reported death numbers spiking is 2-3 weeks. If this spike started around 16-17Jun, we're into week four of said spike and deaths have not responded in proportional measure. Is that more due to hospital availability, the severity of cases, or who is getting sick?
Granted, I'm not a degreed scientist, the only claim I have there is as amateur meteorology nerd - though the parallels between the two fields of study are astounding at times.
I'm interested in your thoughts, thanks so much! - Josh
Good morning! The deaths are especially prone to delayed reporting, so we may have an increase in deaths that we can't see yet in the 14-day window of uncertainty. Nationally, we are starting to see an increase in deaths. I think there are several things to celebrate the lower death rate under normal conditions (not where we are now with hospitalizations surging) including younger people getting sick who are less prone to complications, we know more about how to manage these patients, we have at least one drug that helps (remdesivir) and we are catching people earlier in their disease course with expanded testing. With hospitals surging, however, we may get to a point where we exhaust our resources (beds, equipment, PPE, staff) and when that happens we should expect deaths to increase. Hoping I'm wrong. Also - happy to be in the company of another data nerd! There *are* a lot of similarities between our fields. I frequently allude to hurricane forecasting models when trying to help people understand our models...because the public has far more familiarity with them than disease forecasting models. Thanks for reaching out!
Dr. Schmidtke, thank you very much for doing this work for us.
Can you please confirm something for me? The "hospitalizations" number in your graph and from the GEMA daily reports (I assume these are the same data): are they hospitalizations specifically for the treatment of COVID-19, or (as an acquaintance suggested) are they all COVID-19-positive hospitalizations. That is, if I am admitted to the hospital for an elective procedure and, while there, have a positive test for the viral infection, am I included in that number even though I might not need acute treatment for the infection itself?
Hi Neil! There are two pieces of information here and they refer to different things. It's confusing but I can't do much about it. I'm graphing current COVID-19 hospitalizations, a number that GEMA releases to the public every day. However, when looking at their situation report, hospital bed capacity does not distinguish between COVID-19 usage and non-COVID-19 usage. To summarize, on page 1 of GEMA's situation report they are describing COVID-19-specific data. On page 2 they are summarizing all hospitalization data, regardless of medical condition. They do track the proportion of all hospitalizations that are COVID-19-related and I believe that's supposed to go public in the next week or so. I think that will be a really useful thing for us to follow.
Thank you for your response. I am still left with my main question. What does "COVID-19 hospitalization" mean? Is it a hospitalization where the patient is being treated specifically for COVID-19, or is it a hospitalization where the patient has tested positive for COVID-19, regardless of whether acute treatment is required? If I am admitted to the hospital for reasons unrelated to the virus and, while there, I am tested for the virus and my test is positive but I have no symptoms and no obvious intervention is required for it, am I a COVID-19 hospitalization?
Would you mind making all graphs show from March 1? It’s hard to tell when some of them start in the middle of May and can be a little misleading. Thanks.
Megan, I would love to. But I'm limited to when the data were provided to the public by DPH or GEMA. In the early days they weren't providing a lot of data.
On the State graphic which shows % case increase, the legend doesn’t match all of the colors on the map - I find myself having to go back and forth to figure out where a given county falls. Is it possible to update the legend to include all colors on the graph?
Good morning, Kristi. It's an automatic feature of the software I use and I'm unable to change it. Is there a particular county that I can look up for you?
I was looking at Gwinnett specifically but then realized I was certain about some of our surrounding counties as well. I figured it was something that wasn’t configurable, but thought I would check with you just in case. Thank you for the quick response - it is appreciated!
I worry when you're late: Are you OK?? And so I'm both glad to see this in my inbox this morning and sorry that it is such a stressful process for you--and for all of us. Thank you again for the work that you do.
I'm grateful for your compassion. You're not the only one who worries when I'm late - and it warms my heart. Thanks for being part of this community.
nice
Can you confirm what was the 1st pediatric death in Georgia.
Good afternoon! I am looking forward to your update. How i would i get the PCR for Colquitt County ?
You're looking where to get the PCR test done? Using the GA DPH website, it looks like free testing is available at the Colquitt county health department in Moultrie. Otherwise check here: https://dph.georgia.gov/locations/
Hey, Dr. Schmidtke! Thank you for these updates, they have been very helpful, reliable, and transparent. The work, time, and effort you put into this is very appreciated and well laid out.
In my own observation of the data is that the average delay between cases spiking and reported death numbers spiking is 2-3 weeks. If this spike started around 16-17Jun, we're into week four of said spike and deaths have not responded in proportional measure. Is that more due to hospital availability, the severity of cases, or who is getting sick?
Granted, I'm not a degreed scientist, the only claim I have there is as amateur meteorology nerd - though the parallels between the two fields of study are astounding at times.
I'm interested in your thoughts, thanks so much! - Josh
Good morning! The deaths are especially prone to delayed reporting, so we may have an increase in deaths that we can't see yet in the 14-day window of uncertainty. Nationally, we are starting to see an increase in deaths. I think there are several things to celebrate the lower death rate under normal conditions (not where we are now with hospitalizations surging) including younger people getting sick who are less prone to complications, we know more about how to manage these patients, we have at least one drug that helps (remdesivir) and we are catching people earlier in their disease course with expanded testing. With hospitals surging, however, we may get to a point where we exhaust our resources (beds, equipment, PPE, staff) and when that happens we should expect deaths to increase. Hoping I'm wrong. Also - happy to be in the company of another data nerd! There *are* a lot of similarities between our fields. I frequently allude to hurricane forecasting models when trying to help people understand our models...because the public has far more familiarity with them than disease forecasting models. Thanks for reaching out!
Dr. Schmidtke, thank you very much for doing this work for us.
Can you please confirm something for me? The "hospitalizations" number in your graph and from the GEMA daily reports (I assume these are the same data): are they hospitalizations specifically for the treatment of COVID-19, or (as an acquaintance suggested) are they all COVID-19-positive hospitalizations. That is, if I am admitted to the hospital for an elective procedure and, while there, have a positive test for the viral infection, am I included in that number even though I might not need acute treatment for the infection itself?
Hi Neil! There are two pieces of information here and they refer to different things. It's confusing but I can't do much about it. I'm graphing current COVID-19 hospitalizations, a number that GEMA releases to the public every day. However, when looking at their situation report, hospital bed capacity does not distinguish between COVID-19 usage and non-COVID-19 usage. To summarize, on page 1 of GEMA's situation report they are describing COVID-19-specific data. On page 2 they are summarizing all hospitalization data, regardless of medical condition. They do track the proportion of all hospitalizations that are COVID-19-related and I believe that's supposed to go public in the next week or so. I think that will be a really useful thing for us to follow.
Thank you for your response. I am still left with my main question. What does "COVID-19 hospitalization" mean? Is it a hospitalization where the patient is being treated specifically for COVID-19, or is it a hospitalization where the patient has tested positive for COVID-19, regardless of whether acute treatment is required? If I am admitted to the hospital for reasons unrelated to the virus and, while there, I am tested for the virus and my test is positive but I have no symptoms and no obvious intervention is required for it, am I a COVID-19 hospitalization?
Would you mind making all graphs show from March 1? It’s hard to tell when some of them start in the middle of May and can be a little misleading. Thanks.
Megan, I would love to. But I'm limited to when the data were provided to the public by DPH or GEMA. In the early days they weren't providing a lot of data.
On the State graphic which shows % case increase, the legend doesn’t match all of the colors on the map - I find myself having to go back and forth to figure out where a given county falls. Is it possible to update the legend to include all colors on the graph?
Good morning, Kristi. It's an automatic feature of the software I use and I'm unable to change it. Is there a particular county that I can look up for you?
I was looking at Gwinnett specifically but then realized I was certain about some of our surrounding counties as well. I figured it was something that wasn’t configurable, but thought I would check with you just in case. Thank you for the quick response - it is appreciated!
Gwinnett had a 2.7% 24 hour increase and a 22.4% 7-day increase as of yesterday's update.